Is Lucid stock a good investment at the current price point?


The Saudis spent 5.4B to get 60% of Lucid. If you calculated backward, they spent an equivalent of $3.93 per share (probably more for fees) to get the privilege of an insider deal. This Monday, the PIF affiliate announced it would buy $750 million of convertible preferred stock via private placement and provide a $750 million unsecured delayed draw term loan facility for an additional 1.5B injection into Lucid. Yep, the EV market is not doing well with high interest rates and decreased demand for EVs. However, there is some light at the end of the tunnel:

  • Lucid high-price tech makes it a tough sale with the high interest rate given Americans usually lease or mortgage their cars. However, It will be significantly different when all the cars are more affordable if the interest rate comes down later this year. EV competition is hot but Lucid makes one of the best luxury high-tech EVs. Lucid truly makes great cars and the new models' prices are significantly more affordable than the first Lucid models.
  • The 2025 Air Pure is the most energy-efficient mass-production car ever, with 5 miles per kWh and a record 146 MPGe EPA estimated range rating. The Lucid Air Pure starts at $69,900, down from around $90,000 when it launched.
  • Lucid plans to start Gravity production in late 2024. It will be available starting at under $80,000. The much-awaited Gravity SUV will extend Lucid into the best-selling car segment.
  • The new $1.5 billion capital raise with PIF will extend Lucid's cash until the fourth quarter of 2025.
  • The factory in Saudi Arabia is planned to have an annual capacity of making 150,000 vehicles per year when it is completed.
  • The Government of Saudi Arabia, under which the Government will purchase up to 100,000 vehicles over a ten-year period, with an initial commitment to purchase 50,000 vehicles and an option to purchase up to an additional 50,000 vehicles over the same period. Lucid will support the Saudi Green Initiative’s imperative to ensure that 30% of new car sales in Saudi Arabia are electric by 2030. This would help push up the future earnings significantly.
  • Saudis will most likely make more efforts in financial backing to help Lucid's turnaround given they own a majority stack of the company. The injection of new 1.5B makes it possible that they may even privatize Lucid if things do go sour.
  • Alternatively, Lucid may be bought by another car company at a significant discount for its advanced luxury tech with huge retailer loss but at a price that beats the Saudis' $3.93+/share investment.

I doubt that PIF would let Lucid go without a fight. Lucid now has enough money to last until the 4th quarter of 2025. The company may just be able to pull it off with the backing of PIF which has an estimated 925B in assets, extension into the lucrative SUV segment, and especially if the interest rate goes down.


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