So the Fed keeps saying the labor market is strong that interest rate hike is justified.

However, my story says very differently, and so does what r/jobs says, where you will see so many employers baiting and switching.

Sure, compared to when I first was looking into jobs in 2016, it seems like the job market gets better, but is it really strong enough that employers are paying upend price to hire someone?

My experience

My job application stats in last 3 months , pretty much all pharma tickers that many people trade would know such as PFE/TMO/LLY/JNJ/ABBV/ABT. Applied 30+ jobs

I have 5 years of experience/MS STEM degree/basic computer programming skills (Python/R+/Excel), but can't seem to find jobs.

Just finished 3rd round of interview a week ago, 1st HR screen interview, 2nd hiring manager 1:1 interview over the virtual meeting (cuz the location is at the other side of the coast) and 3rd panel interviews.

During 3rd panel interviews, it was 3 hours interviews, including a quick presentation of my previous projects and lunch time, all of which are about to judge me as a potential employee and a colleague, indicating how much selective they are. I dont like it from the begining to the end.

And per glassdoor, this position pays around 95K as a base pay in the location.

Common, all I am looking for is just W2 wage for 70-80K base pay (in midwest standard) with work life balance, if that's not too much.

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Fed's evaluation and rate hike

Part of reason here is to vent about this distorted job markets, but primary reason to share is to see if this what's called “Strong job market” is able to support Fed's rate hike in the next course of the months, if not years, without causing recessions?

Fed might say that due to great resignation and population change (Boomers retiring and more workforce is needed), the labor market clearly favors employees, but I am not sure if that will actually support the economy in the long run. Great resignation people who might have benefited in 2021's bull run are running almost out of their profits.

Current index level is about May 2021, and many still are uncertain if recent 2 weeks' market run-up is only the beginning of the bear markets or will start to recover. So those great resignation folks might have to come back to workforce when Index crashed another 10-15%.

Then when it come to population change, corporates wont simply hire a new employee just because the employee is leaving. Sure, when department manager complains and bring it to the issue to upper management, it might, but corporate America is all about squeezing employees out like slaves, and return the money back to share holders, so if they find out the department can run without the retired employees, then they wont simply hire (I am currently working in one of the tickers that I have shared, but have seen this case so often that there is no replacement for the leaving employees, and the left over is on current employees).

So how does this mean strong labor market will continue?

Understandably, it can really differ depending on which sectors and regions, for instance, one of my family members just got into JPM as investor consultant, and the starting point was 150K in NYC, which would be almost same as 70-80K in my area when it comes to buying powers per nerd wallet living cost calculator.

Also yes, if I want to work in MCD flipping burgers or in WMT/COST just loading some boxes, sure I can be hired within 30 minutes, but do we really call this as strong job markets? In other words, 15$ per hour job is available everywhere, but do we really call it a job? It's just part time gig that is only used as a stepping stone to move to next chapter of life.

Then when it comes to actual jobs that have potential career ladders, this kind of jobs are highly selective such as what I went through, and with technologies developing, the demand for workforce will be likely discontinued.

Big Question: Okay, so what? What's the outcome?

Perhaps, no one knows the outcome including any Fed members, but I still believe that deflationary pressure are at full force when it comes to labor markets and inflationary pressure are at full force when it comes to raw materials due to deglobalization of the current political climate.

To me it sounds like exactly stagflation, where no one can make money, but who knows? The chance is I will be most likely wrong, and I hope I am wrong on this.