First, anyone who thinks Putin/anyone close to Putin can be trusted does not know the basic history of Putin. Putin was the same man who said he was simply lining up his military along the border of Ukraine for “military testing”. The “peace” talks going one way or another are supremely irrelevant. Putin wants Ukraine – all of it. He will never surrender – he is a sociopath.
Second, the main reason oil collapsed down from the $135 level back down to where it is now is because of the strict China COVID lockdowns. These will probably follow a similar pattern as in 2020 (2 large spikes within a month, then a drastic scaling back and much lower COVID numbers reported). I would say around the beginning to mid April oil prices will begin to soar again. I originally thought oil would hit $150 by late this month. China COVID coming out of nowhere made this not happen (and I am glad, truly do not want oil to soar).
Third, and the main reason for this post. The fun is going to come to a nasty stall folks pretty soon. Come around mid April when COVID lockdowns ease in China, and the traveling begins in the USA oil is going to go parabolic, much more aggressively than what we saw in the past month. Oil could easily jump from say $100 to $180 within a month. Nothing will stop it in that short period.
The best thing a reddit investor can do is the following: Sell what you believe will go red when this happens (everything besides oil). I am going to load up on even more UVXY. As well as USO, along with CVX. It would likewise be wise to stock your portfolio with GLD as a nice hedge for the storm to come.
I honestly hope I am wrong. I hope I wake up one of these days and see Putin being tried for crimes against humanity and a total peace in Ukraine. That is just not going to happen however. As an investor, the above protects your assets. Once again – hoping I am wrong – hoping to see the pictures and videos of the innocent in Ukraine being able to rebuild normalcy somehow and Putin being tried for war crimes.
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