InPost SA (INPST) – analysis & why I think it’s a great opportunity for huge growth over the next years


Hello,

I wanted to start a discussion about InPost – most likely not many people here know about this company yet as Reddit is mostly American, so here are some details & my analysis. Disclaimer: I love the company and I am investing in InPost regardless – I am not asking for advice, just wanted to start a discussion.

InPost provides delivery services through its network of automated parcel machines as well as to-door couriers and fulfillment services to e-commerce merchants. Established in Poland in 2006, where 2/3 of online shoppers use lockers.

So, most of their business is focused on their parcel lockers. They are the absolute leader in this segment in Poland – over 18000 lockers in the entire country, and thanks to InPost, Poland has the largest worldwide number of automated parcel machines (APMs) per 100,000 inhabitants.

48% adults in Poland use InPost's services. 58% of them have an InPost locker within a 7-minute walk; 47% within only a 5-minute walk.

The price for their delivery services is about 10pln ($2), which is cheaper than traditional to-door services, although most big stores/platforms offer deliveries to InPost's parcel lockers for free.

Competitors: domestically mostly Orlen and Allegro, only have about 1000-2000 lockers each. Nowhere near InPost. Late to the party. Also Orlen is not trusted by the vast majority of consumers due to it being a state-owned company.

Competitive advantage:

  • 99% of packages are delivered on the next day,

  • the number of lockers virtually everywhere in the country – in 2021 InPost had 45% of all collection points in Poland (this includes for example stores which accept deliveries as a side-business),

  • contracts with major e-commerce platforms,

  • they are universally loved and trusted in the country. People generally prefer having their package delivered to a locker that's 5 minutes away than to be locked at home for the entire day awaiting the delivery. They are faster than competition as well and often deliver on weekends.

  • the market for parcel lockers is not saturated in countries other than Poland, so the possibilities for growth are insane. They are capitalizing on it.

Growth:

  • deliveries to parcel machines already account for almost 40% of all deliveries in Poland, and by 2024 this number will be equal to the market share for home deliveries.

  • almost 15.7 million people in Poland have more than 10 minutes of walk to the nearest parcel collection point or a parcel machine of any company. It means that there is still room for development and new devices and collection points in Poland.

  • they are increasing their volumes even when the market goes down. In Q1 2022 their marketshare in Poland increased by 16%. In UK, even though the market shrunk by 20%, InPost's volumes increased by 157%. In France, InPost's volumes increased by 8% while the market shrunk by 16%.

  • InPost Fresh: their new service which provides grocery deliveries from supermarkets to their parcel lockers or to-door.

  • new lockers operated only through their mobile app. Cheaper to manufacture than their previous ones with large touch screens, saves energy as well. 9.6M people use their app.

  • most importantly in my opinion, their plans to expand internationally. They doubled the number of their lockers in the UK this year – to 4000. They took over Mondial Relay in France and have placed 1000 lockers so far in 9 months. According to CEO Rafał Brzoska, there is even more demand for their services in France than in Poland. They are also introducing InPost in Spain and Portugal.

  • Q2 2022 was record breaking for the company. Increased income by 97.8%, EBITDA up by 41% and 73% more delivered packages. 225% more in the UK alone after introducing label-less returns. Increased marketshare in all locations despite market shrinking.

I am invested because I have used their services for a few years now, and I think they will grow to be the leader internationally as well. The share price is 6.49 EUR right now, up by 9.43% last month. Down by 57.09% since last year. I bought at 5.87 EUR.


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