Let me preface this by saying this isn't exactly money I'll need anytime soon, and I don't invest what I can't lose, but it is a portion of money that I need to keep liquid and at a higher balance for a home purchase within the year.
I was going to write a long post but I think I'll keep it short and sweet. Things are starting to deteriorate. Inflation was already getting out of control. On top of that a major producer in the world of basic materials has essentially been taken out of play. Furthermore, we are going to be getting rate increases and not decreases, so the ONLY tool the Fed would have to fight this, they do not. There are no tools left to combat this except to raise rates incredibly fast. Let us not forget, the Fed was already backed into a corner before Ukraine came into the picture.
We all know markets love certainly, and we are seeing firsthand why. There are a couple ways this breaks: the war in Ukraine ends suddenly, and the ship is righted. This is unlikely IMO. The sanctions on Russia won't be lifted unless there is an extreme event.
As for why I'm selling, at this point the risk far outweighs the reward. I'm sure there will be those who say good, sell to me for cheaper, and long term, they are right. Keep buying and DCA in, fortunes are made starting in bear markets. There may even be a COVID-style V shaped recovery if everything breaks just right. In my case, however, I don't have that luxury to see where the bottom is. So the point of all this here, please, if you need the money anytime soon, sell and if world events resolve, reassess. I just don't want to see anybody not be able to buy that first home, or car, because the markets took years to recover from some serious events. I'm no financial advisor, but I did stay at a holiday inn express last night!!!
Positions: VOO and QQQM, down about 10% and 15% YTD. This is 65% my portfolio. DBC, UCO, BOIL, RIO, VALE, URNM, GLD, SLV, up 35% YTD. This is 35% my portfolio.
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