I understand that my viewpoint may seem contrarian, but hear me out:
Fundamentals haven’t changed. Russian companies that are trading 90% or more down from pre invasion levels are still real companies that generate free cash flow.
Equities are valued based off of free cash flows that a business can generate at least 5 years from today. Not in 6 months, not in 12 months.
A lot of Russian companies are paying their costs in Roubles, which is fucking dirt cheap now.
In my opinion, Russian equity prices won’t stay distressed at these bankruptcy level valuations. These prices are lower than Covid & 2008 levels. To me, this is the equivalent of buying cheap Russian companies during the break up of the USSR.
Feel free to attack my thesis in the comments
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