We can debate if we are in a recession, nearing one or not. I believe there is a better chance than not of having one. My exact timeline would look something like this: Inflation still remains high and J Powell keeps raising rates every few months (anyone who thinks he is stopping at raising rates in the coming weeks needs to realize this is the same guy who said months before several rate increases that intseeest rate hikes were not even on the table). Prices of everyday goods stays too high and just too many Americans can no longer stay afloat. Credit card debt is at an all time high right now. People are putting gas, food, vacations, etc on credit cards and not paying it off. Many people I know are not even paying the minimum owed each month because they cannot afford to because rent just went up another $300 in the last few months. Want a used car? Good luck even with an outstanding credit score of finding less than 6% interest – oh and that used car is marked up in value over 40% what it was selling for in 2021. I think the recession scenario is inevitable and it will start to unfold when just enough people making around $55k-$65k just cannot stay afloat anymore and it is that simple.
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