The last 2 years has been historical on so many fronts, and nobody has any fucking clue what is going to happen next. There are educated guesses sure, but it's like throwing darts in the dark.
Global pandemic, PE, quarterly reports, book value, it all became meaningless, everything crashed, and then surged to multiples, there were short squeezes, flows of capital, everything went full blown “wtf is going on this makes no sense”.
Even blue chips became speculative, if you've bought google / amazon / microsoft / ford / choose your pick, it's on a wing and a prayer.
A quote I can't stop thinking about, that has been floating around in recent times….
- “Hard times make hard men. Hard men make easy times. Easy times make soft men. Soft men make hard times.”
We have a nasty habit of looking at the past 30-40 years (which is a huge bulk of our lives), and thinking it is the status quo. We draw on it to make decisions. The past 30-40 years are just a snippet of time. Between technological revolutions, data sharing, unrest, unpredictable economic decisions, the digitization of everything including money, but more importantly information… I think it is safe to say we are entering uncharted waters.
I have always been, and will remain a “Time in the market beats timing the market”, that being said, anyone that comments on anything regarding investing with absolute confidence, is a fool and should not be listened to in these current times.
The human species is entering a new era, at a rapid pace. We are in a ferrari with the pedal to the metal and wearing a blindfold. You can try to make well informed decisions, and it doesn't matter. The world is in arguably the most unpredictable state that it has ever been in throughout human history.
In 20 years of investing, everything at this point feels like straight up gambling, from choosing insurance policies, taking on a mortgage, trying to plan for utility costs, investing, hell… Just trying to plan for the future.
there are bulls, and bears… But currently, the real king of the ring is uncertainty.
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