The Cleveland Fed's Nowcast is currently predicting 8.09% and 8.05% CPI reads for October and November, respectively (annualized, of course). That is against an 8.2% number for September. If this were to prove accurate, I have a hard time believing the market will view a pivot as imminent.
And these Nowcast figures are not due to some fluke of the monthly numbers. The monthly predictions are .67% and .76%, Annualizing just those monthly increases puts us at or over 8% annually for CPI. That is not supportive of an “inflation is slowing” narrative.
tl;dr for those who need it: Cleveland Fed's Nowcast is predicting the equivalent of 8%+ annualized CPI for both October and November.
https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting
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