There seem to be a lot of people holding cash/t-bills/money market funds expecting lower prices on the stock market where they can deploy their cash. How will this work out?
Some possible scenarios:
'1. The market does find lower levels, inflation comes down, the economy is doing okay, fed are being move doveish. People buy in and new bull market begins.
2 (a). The market finds lower levels, inflation comes down, the economy is doing okay, fed are being move doveish. People buy in, but it's a false bottom – economy goes to shit and we see further major drops.
2 (b). Same as above but people don't buy the false bottom, correctly wait for another bottom and it plays out like (1)
3 (a). The market starts to climb from here and is higher 6-12 months from now. Inflation is down, economy appears still strong. Fed signal they will cut rates as inflation is nearing target. People buy in. New bull market
3 (b) Same as above but the economy goes to shit after people buy in and the market drops severely.
Essentially the question is, will market timing go better than it historically has this time, and if not, how will it fail?
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