Hypothetical: China begins invasion of Taiwan, does Intel stock go up or down?

There are two schools of thought on this:

• Intel stock goes up because TSM's production is cut off, therefore greatly hampering fabless chip companies like AMD or NVDA.

• Intel stock goes down, because while Intel has American fabs, a lot of the components and packaging are still done in Asia so a war in that region will still lock down Intel's production. Plus TSM makes chips for Intel as well.

For purpose of this hypothetical, assume that the war is contained to just between China and Taiwan (e.g. United States is not sending troops and no one is talking about firing nooks or ICBMs in retaliation).

If your answer is “Intel goes down”, then does it go down as much as AMD would?