Say you wanted to forecast commodity prices, and wanted to analyses the amount of Uranium supply in the next 5 years.
Obviously there many other factors such as policies, amount of demand, general population consensus towards using nuclear energy. But for the sake of making this simple we’ll assume these factors remain the same for the next 5 years.
So what are some strategies to gather information regarding the amount of Uranium there will be supplied.
One strategy I thought of was to go through every publicly listed companies in the world and check which ones supply Uranium. Find them, list them, make some basic calculations and determine how much Uranium they will supply. (This will obviously be extreme difficult to accurately calculate)
However what about some private companies out there, there could be many unknown private companies that also supplies Uranium.
So, what are some strategies people use to gather these type of information? I’m sure the really big players/investment banking companies would be able to find these type of information. So how would they go about doing this?
Or rather, it’s basically impossible or extremely difficult to take into every little detail into account, and the big players are estimating as well.
I guess one more thing is, is my approach too dumb/basic. If it is, what are some other good approaches?
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