I used to work in trading, finished the first two levels of the CFA exam but also had this nagging question that I've never received a good answer to.
If you own a stock that pays no dividends, you are looking for capital appreciation which is a function of market share price and depending on what camp you're in, fundamentals. So ultimately, this market appreciation rests on the opinion of other investors in the market. So you could have a company that grows EPS well above it's peer industry, well managed with a growing top line and expanding margins but pays no dividends. On it's face using a very general and basic example, this share price should increase, but it could just as easily go down (although it 'deserves' to go up). Continuing with this example, if you hold onto it, consistently good and growing earnings numbers, while the share price declines and no dividends and paid, what tangible value are you holding onto outside of the “greater fool theory” of market prices? I'm talking about people who aren't holding a percentage of shares that gives them the right to appoint board members and influence daily operations, but small shareholders.
Markets and humans, are rarely consistently rational, so maybe that company you own that is performing strong operationally but has a weak stock price is never acquired by a larger concern then, what you are just looking at? the net assets/equity value if the firm is ultimately liquidated as you sit below debt and preferreds in the liquidation hierarchy? So when you buy a common stock that pays a dividend you are getting 'tangible' cash payments each quarter/year, but when you buy a common stock with no dividends you are banking on:
- The company's value in the market is recognized and it's share price is rewarded
- The company is acquired by another company but if it's an all stock transaction, you are in the same situation with the acquirer's shares, but otherwise you received a pre-determined amount of cash per share owned
- The company institutes dividend payments, which also is a likely a signal of a maturation of the company's growth where internal investment is less conducive to value creation than just paying out excess cash to entice shareholders
- The company is ultimately liquidated and you receive the equity value per share owned in accordance with the priority of payments
I've always just felt like when I owned a non-dividend paying growth stock that I was owning some intangible hope. Even if the company performed to perfection I still have to hope that the market recognizes that fact or else it's a moot point. Where as owning dividend stocks I am receiving tangible value at regular periods.
Apologies for the long-winded question but I'm curious how others look at it so I can adjust my perspective. I understand the value in investing in high growth enterprises but I always had this nagging question in my head that made me ambivalent.
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