How realistic are rate cuts next year, and is it really bullish?


The market is currently predicting that the Fed will cut interest rates next year. There can be multiple reasons for this:

  1. Inflation has peaked and growth is slowing, so the Fed will cut to support the economy.
  2. Bond market is predicting a recession and going to safety (bonds)
  3. The bond market is getting ahead of itself and will have to reverse if the Fed signals they are not stopping/slowing rate hikes next year.

From my perspective, there are too many crosscurrents to make a reasonable determination of why bond yields are down, and why expectations are for rate cuts next year.

Concurrently, as the market prices in rate cuts for next year, forward inflation expectations are slowly rising. This could lead to the start-stop issue during the inflation of the 1970's, where Central Banks would raise rates to quash inflation, and as inflation came down a little, they would pause or cut rates, driving inflation right back up again, making it a structural issue until Volcker came along.

I'm hoping the Fed won't make the same mistake here until the data really shows inflation is meaningfully coming down.

I'm curious to see what everyone else thinks about the market pricing in rate cuts for next year means, and if it's bullish or bearish for stocks.


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