Just curious to see… how many investors/traders believe that Ukraine is worth to protect?
Simplest term is that
1) Without Russia-Ukraine war, Inflation would have most likely hit the top in Q1 2022
2) With inflation rates declining and oil price stable at 80$, it would have given more time for Fed to react. It would have not even done any of the rate hike until 2023 like what Fed's dot plot said in Sep2021. There would have been higher chance for soft landing in both US/EU economy as well. But now it's almost guaranteed that EU zone will see recessions and US might be witnessing recession as well.
Then Russia-Ukraine war breaks out, which changes all calculation here as Russia's oil is irreplaceable and both Russia/Ukraine export food and raw materials.
3) Without the West's financial/military support, Ukraine would have not succeeded this far, if not lost within 3 days of the war (which was seemingly Russia's initial plan). If so (Ukraine capitulated within 3 days) then, perhaps, the West would have not sanctioned Russia this much enough that they would have not targeted Russian Oil and raw materials.
So now….
1) Point of no return is already exceeded for Russia. So many of their soldiers' life bled too much and the sanction by West started, the best damage control for what Russia can do is to drag the war until a point for every consumers in the West, asking themselves if this war is, indeed, their best interest, if not just a mental relief.
2) West wont step back either because of all the atrocity we have witnessed in last 2 months, so at this point, no body is playing the game to win the war, but it's a game not to lose in this messy war.
3) With all those being said, then ultimate question is…
is this war worth for enduring financial pain we have been feeling?
Because if Ukraine just accepts the term and conditions from Russia, and end war tomorrow, then perhaps, oil price will go down and inflationary pressures in commodities will ease, which will definitely help the pressure.
Dont get me wrong, every part of me in my heart support Ukraine's fight for sovereignty, but my brokerage account says otherwise, so does many investor's brokerage/IRA/401K accounts, so I am just wondering this.
I know it's about blame game, but that's what the real life is all about, right?
I mean obviously there are other reasons such as too high demands and supply chain constraints particularly delayed by China, but this messy market all started when Russia invaded Ukraine with Putin exactly knowing the West's salted wound. Obviously, I dont condemn Ukraine's efforts for its sovereignty or anything, but it doesnt mean my investment is not affected either, so I am asking if this damage so far is worth?
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