This isn't a “decent sale.”
It's the beginning of a fire-sale.
If earnings decline 15% during the coming recession and stocks trade down to 15X, guess what happens to stocks?
-30%
(It's going to be worse than this, but you get the point.)
Lower multiples applied to declining earnings with a higher discount rate.
We're probably looking at…
-50%
When bubble burst, equities fall 50%.
See: 2000, 2008.
This bubble was bigger – and vaster – than previous bubbles.
S&P 500 target = 2400.
“The stock market had its crash.”
No, it didn't!
You're wildly understating the vast scope and breadth of the “everything bubble.”
Total U.S. Market Cap to GDP was WORSE during this bubble than either 2000 or 2008.
Stocks were MORE EXPENSIVE relative to U.S. economic output than in 2000 or 2008!
The last two times bubbles burst, stocks fell 50%.
We're only down 15%.
The rout has happened yet.
Better buckle up.
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