Hi all,
As of writing this post WTI Crude sits at 76.28$. Excluding 2022, this is still the highest crude oil price we've had since 2014.
Now add to this that USA is depleting the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Europe is in a recession and China is still imposing lockdowns. All these factors belong to a BEAR thesis on oil as there is less demand for oil because of them.
Now I think it's not too exaggerated to expect that sooner rather than later that:
– USA stops using the Oil Reserves as it will become a national security concern if it gets too low
– Europe will see brighter days
– China relaxes covid protocols(especially with the recent protests)
This should mean that whenever these things happen oil demand will be higher->higher oil prices(starting from already high prices)->higher inflation.
How can the Feds be expecting lower inflation rate in the future given these factors? Am I missing something?
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