How accurate is max pain theory for something like SPY?


https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/maxpain.asp

https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nyse-spy/optionchain/summary/

http://www.maximum-pain.com/options/spy

From what I can tell, monthly expirations have a whole lot more open interest than weeklies. I know it changes daily but as of now, 10/21 max pain strike price is $385

If you look +/- 10% from that based on “max pain” (cash loss), we get a range of $377-$392 by 10/21

How reliable is this at predicting where the market will end up price wise? If it is not very accurate, what are some other metrics that could be looked at given the SPY option chain that would “expose” where some big heavy players think (or may manipulate the market) to be price wise?


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