https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1624093631929020416/photo/1
“Core CPI for the last 3 months of the year goes from 3.1% to 4.3% with the new seasonal factors BLS just released.” Haven't had time to double check the calculations, but you can find the data here.
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/home.htm
If this is true, the disinflationary trend we've been seeing might not be that strong. We need to see at most 0.3% Core CPI MoM from now on, and to achieve low 3% core CPI annual by the end of 2023, we're going to need to start seeing 0.2% MoM core CPI as well. Consensus for Core CPI MoM next Tuesday is 0.4%. Wondering if it already factored in the seasonal adjustment or not. There's some upside risk to core CPI next week due to the recent trend of rising used car prices
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