Lots of hype lately about the NACS plug standard adoption. Yes, it’s a good thing to have one type of plug across most/all cars. Yes, it will potentially generate more revenue for Tesla by increasing demand at super charger stations. However, I am seeing incredibly high $billion dollar revenue numbers getting thrown around like candy. Knowing the realization of this NACS adoption is years away and that Tesla has something like 17000 stations in the USA, let’s do some math:
Assuming each charger is active everyday for 1 year and they are fully utilized at 24 times per day. At their charge rate I was told by others that each charge generates about $25 per. I think I am being very optimistic and conservative.
So, I get to about $3.7/3.8B per year in Revenue (not earnings).
If Tesla in 5 years doubled that 17000 in US then of course double that revenue number.
Again, lots of assumptions and fairly optimistic and conservative.
Where do all these so called expert analysts get their wild revenue numbers? I have seen $10B plus in revenue by 2030 and $100B plus by xxxx.
Are they assuming that the rest of the world will also use Tesla super chargers at this same rate? Tesla will have no competition for charging? That EVs will dominate the car industry in next 5-10 years? Etc.
OK, let’s throw in all 40000 chargers world wide and using same estimates we are $8.8B per year. Again, huge assumptions into the far off future.
Aren’t the Tesla market cap increases after all these announcements ridiculous? Are analysts intentionally misleading investors with their unrealistic expectations for the next 5-10 years? Are investors blinded by the momentum trade? Is this another meme moment?
What am I missing?
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