I'm very curious to know if anyone has access to this type of dataset.
Simply put, before each earnings, there tends to be an average EPS and Revenue forecast for the company. I'd also imagine that the accuracy / variation also depends on the size of the company. WE can make it more granular by segmenting based on company sizes, but in general, I'm curious how accurate these estimates tend to be when the actual numbers are released. In other words, how accurate do they tend to be on a forward basis, on average?
To extend this further, how about earnings growth estimate on the SP500 as a whole? I understand that analysts give their own estimates on earnings growth for the next fiscal year for the SP500. On average, how accurate do those be? I couldn't find any studies on this, but I wanted to use the data to determine whether there might be any discernable relationships between 1) expected earnings growth (forward PE) vs. actual materialized earnings growth, treasury rates, and ultimately, P/E ratios.
I 100% recognize there there's a myriad of other factors that determine valuation, but I'm still curious whether treasury rates and expected vs. materialized earnings growth have an determinant value on the appropriate P/E ratio for the market.
This might be way in over my head, so I'm happy to listen to others thoughts and correct me own thinking on how I should think about these things. Thanks!
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