Has the market priced in the possibility of The Fall of Kyiv?

I like millions of others watching the news, support Ukraine, and hope that they will come out of this victorious.

But because of Russia's superiority in terms of military might, we can basically expect them to win the war sooner or later.

My question is: what will the Fall of Kyiv and Ukraine do to the stock market?

Will it crash? Or has that possibility been priced in. Over the past 2 weeks, Commoditiy prices has eased from their high, with crude now barely above $100 a barrel after nearing $130.

Safe haven currencies like the Greenback and Gold have also retreated from highs in early March.

It seems to me the markets have priced in the initial uncertainty around the impact od the invasion relating to commodity prices.

But, if Kyiv & subsequently Ukraine were to fall, what would happen to the markets?