Good time to buy RIVN?


I have yet to do a deep due diligence on the company, but there are three things that make me want to buy

  1. The product look good. I've seen these trucks driving around and they look impressive. They also appear to be well designed and have competitive mileage.

  2. The company is supported by Amazon, who has sizable equity ownership and an agreement to purchase 100,000 trucks by 2030. This support, I believe, will help keep the company afloat as the company burns money.

  3. The stock is trading much more reasonably compared to its IPO. It's down 86%, almost at its 52 week low, and no longer had a market cap greater than Ford or GM.

There are definitely downsides and risks
As a startup and an automotive company Rivian will feel pressure as it already has with layoffs. However, it is my belief that because their trucks are so expensive ($75k), their customers will be those in higher income brackets and less susceptible to recession risks, but the auto market I believe has more room to fall. Importantly, the company is burning money with negative operating cash flow.

To anyone who has done more in-depth due diligence, how do you feel about this? Are there any glaring red flags I've missed?


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