https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/outlook-2023-us-expected-to-escape-recession.html
https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/macro-outlook-2023-this-cycle-is-different.html
Goldman Sach's economists say that there’s a 35% probability that the US tips into recession over the next year.
They say that the US may avoid a downturn in part because data on economic activity is nowhere close to recessionary. GDP grew 2.6% (annualized) in the third quarter, according to an advance report. The country also added 261,000 jobs last month.
Their economists don’t expect a rate cut until the second quarter of 2024. “With a resilient labor market and still elevated inflation, we don’t see any rate cuts in 2023 unless the economy enters recession after all,” states Jan Hatzius, head of Goldman Sachs Research and the firm’s chief economist.
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