Fed critic Jeremy Siegel now says money supply indicates Fed in danger of doing too much

For the last year Jeremy Siegel has been complaining that the Fed wasn't doing enough.
Today, he said he was shocked by the drastic drop in money supply, he said money supply is the key indicator he looks at for forecasts, and that he's seeing:

2nd largest monthly decline in money supply in 60 years.

Here are some key points from him roughly paraphrased:

• I'm beginning to get concerned about too much reaction from the Fed withdrawing too quickly.

• If money supply continue to be this low will have 2023 recession for sure.

• Fed talk is already tightening the market. Look at mortgage for example (earlier in the interview they talked about how home builder stocks were dropping).

• Fed should definitely still do the 50 points, but in July they should take close look at money supply before making more drastic decisions.

• To some extent Fed should accept inflation and aim to get to 2-3% long term. Don't overreact

Somewhere in the middle the interviewer challenged him and asked “Well aren't you the one who was asking for more drastic action?”

My read on this is that Siegel is saying the two 50 point raises announced are good. But the other language Fed has been dropping recently about doing more — he doesn't support that when money supply is this low.

Is this:

• Good news because if even Siegel is telling Fed to chill maybe we're not going to get more than the 2 x 50 point hikes.

• Bad news because if Fed ignores Siegel and go harder on the rate hikes we'll go into recession.