Here's the usual weekly Factset update.
Earnings and Revenue YoY Decline
With 84% of the companies in the S&P 500 (and 80% of the market cap roughly) having reported, the new blended earnings estimate is -5.2% YoY–one week ago, their estimate was -7.4%, so we surprised to the upside. The blended revenue estimate is +0.6% YoY. [Blended just means combine estimates of companies that haven't reported with those that have]
Beating/Missing Earnings
Of these companies, 79% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is above the 5-year average of 77% and above the 10-year average of 73%. […]
In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 7.2% above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 8.4% but above the 10-year average of 6.4%.
So 80% are beating (on average 73% do), and they are beating estimates by 7.2% on average (which is typical). Yes, analysts lowered estimates.
Sectoral Breakdown
The year over year declines in earnings are driven entirely by 3 sectors: Energy, Materials, and Health Care. All other sectors are seeing year over year growth. Similarly, the revenue declines are only in 3 sectors: utilities, energy, materials. Notice health care missing? In fact, the top 3 sectors by revenue growth are consumer discretionary, financials, and health care. My conclusion is that healthcare's earnings decline is driven by steep margin compression. [Patents expiring? Post-Covid operations increasing costs for insurers?] While energy/materials are just seeing revenue tank and thus earnings.
Top 3 earnings sectors are Consumer discretionary, Communication Services, Industrials. Guessing thanks to AMZN, META, GOOG, CAT.
Valuations
Valuations are basically a little over average but not insane.
The forward 12-month P/E ratio is 19.2, which is above the 5-year average (18.6) and above the 10-year average (17.4). It is also slightly above the forward P/E ratio of 19.1 recorded at the end of the second quarter (June 30).
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