Extreme Dip-buy Candidate: Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)


Again, this is a trend analysis, and I screen on fundamentals before looking at the trends.

10-year trendlines: SWK is currently 2 below 2 StDev from its linear and exponential 10-year growth trends, with 2 StDev at approximately 143.20 (my entry point). Its current downward deviation from trend is its largest downward deviation in 10 years, other than the COVID crash.

PE Ratio: Current PE ratio of 14.89 is the lowest PE in 10 years, other than the COVID crash. 2 StDev from mean is 14.33, so it's basically within buying range.

200-weekly MA deviation: currently at -7% below the 200wMA, after the recent runup. It was at -12%, which was the largest downward deviation from the 200wMA since the COVID crash. The largest before was -9%, so this is still within buying range.

Miscellaneous considerations: Revenue isn't a straight line, but it trends up with relative consistency. EPS swings a bit up and down, but again, it's relatively upward (and the PE is at a historical low point already). The absolute dividend payout increases with relative consistency, but the yield declined with price (but has gone back up as the price has come down). As with all dip buys, the chart looks terrible, but statistically speaking, the only better time to buy it was at the bottom of the COVID crash.


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