Hey everyone,
I'm an investor in ASTS and over the last few months there's been one question that I have struggled to answer.
Normally I would ask the other investors in the ASTS subreddit but I'm worried about their bias, I myself am biased.
In the all-in-podcast the concept of excess returns being competed away has come up multiple times and it makes complete sense. If someone is making more money than they should somewhere, someone is bound to compete against them and take those returns down to where it makes sense.
The issue I've run into with this concept being used on ASTS is spectrum.
On one hand we've got starlink D2D and Lynk as competitors but the piece of the puzzle that we have and that they're mostly missing is the customers.
Customers as in mobile network operators who own spectrum.
If an MNO picks ASTS, they cant exactly pick starlink D2D as well, the satellite systems would cause interference if they tried to service the same area on earth.
They could split the spectrum they offer to each but in doing so, they may still cause interference and reduce the performance of those services in their territories.
So MNOs will pick one D2D (Direct 2 Device) provider to provide coverage where there are coverage gaps.
Now to really ask the question. How would excess returns be competed away? MNOs will go with whoever provides the best coverage at the best price, there are less than 1700 MNO/MVNO (potential customers).
I've tried to game theory this as well.
If you're an MNO then you would take the option that makes you the most money, if that's ASTS who provides the most capacity, has a revenue share model then you pick them. What about your competitor, wouldn't they do the same? How about neighboring country MNOs, wouldn't the same idea run through their minds?
What if your competitor chose ASTS, do you choose Starlink D2D? Why would you?
Apologies if the bias is showing.
In my mind it really feels like it's whoever has the best tech at the best price takes the entire/super-majority of the market.
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