Exact Sciences' primary growth driver of late has been its Cologuard colorectal cancer (CRC) screening test intended for average risk individuals beginning at age 45. In Q3, Cologuard screening revenue increased 31% YOY to $472 million, enabling the company to post a small profit of $0.8 million for the quarter, compared to a net loss of $148.8 million a year ago.
The TAM for Cologuard is huge, with an estimated 60 million eligible Americans not up to date with current CRC screening recommendations. Cologuard only has 10% market penetration currently, but that percentage is rising, especially given the much quicker uptake of the test in the 45-49 year age group. The company is targeting 40% market penetration among all age groups, with up to 50% penetration among 45-49 year olds.
NFL quarterback Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys has teamed up with the Colorectal Cancer Alliance to spread awareness that CRC is preventable and that there are a variety of screening options, including Cologuard, which is a non-invasive at home screening option which requires no prep no, anesthesia and no time off work.
Exact Sciences is covered by 17 analysts with a consensus rating of strong buy and price target of $92.07, representing 42.26% upside to the December 8, 2023 closing price of $64.72.
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