The leading economy of the European Union – Germany – is beginning to implement the policy of abandoning Russian energy carriers, setting an example for all other European countries. Until recently, Russia supplied Germany with 40 % of coal and oil consumed, as well as as much as 50 % of natural gas (another 24 % came from Norway, 20 % from the Netherlands and 6 % was produced in Germany itself).
Official Berlin confirmed that from August 1, Germany will abandon Russian coal, and from
December 31, 2022, Russian oil as well (which was provided for by the fifth and sixth packages of EU general sanctions against the Russian Federation). A more difficult task for the German government is to find ways to replace the supply of “blue fuel” from the Russian Federation. Germany is now rapidly working to complete the launch of four LNG terminals and connect them to the national gas distribution network: Brunsbüttel (Schleswig-Holstein); Wilhelmshaven (Lower Saxony); Stade (Lower Saxony, near Hamburg); Rostock (Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania).
It should also be noted that the Polish Prime Minister M. Morawiecki offered the German government to use the Polish gas facilities. First, we are talking about LNG receiving terminals in the Baltic ports of Swinoujscie and Gdansk. Secondly, the technical launch of the Baltic Pipe gas pipeline, which Copenhagen and Warsaw laid along the bottom of the Baltic Sea, and which will deliver gas from fields on the Norwegian shelf to Denmark and Poland, should take place on October 1, 2022. At the same time, all surpluses of Norwegian gas can be exported to Germany. Of course, Poland will not have too much gas excesses, but this gas can be used as a contingency measure for Germany. Germany can also use other nearby LNG terminals in Rotterdam (Netherlands) and Klaipeda (Lithuania).
In general, “blue fuel” for Germany’s internal needs for the coming autumn-winter period should be enough, but, of course, it will rise in price, which will be reflected in the price of gas for German housing and communal services. This is the price paid by Germany for the Russian “gas needle,” that the German government deliberately put the whole country on. Now it is necessary to get rid of this “needle” thanks to LNG supplies from Arab countries and the USA.
In addition, the German government will have to slightly increase the time frame for the implementation of the “energy turnaround” (Energiewende). This concept involves the gradual refusal of Germany from the use of fossil hydrocarbon fuels and nuclear energy with the transition to renewable energy sources (RES). Previously, Germany planned to increase the share of electricity generated from RES to 50 % by 2030, to 65 % by 2040 and to 80 % by 2050. This goal planned to be achieved through the rapid closure of all coal-fired power plants, the slow closure of nuclear power plants, development of new technologies related to the use of synthetic gases and hydrogen, as well as increasing investment in “green” energy sources. It is now clear that it is still too early for German and other European coal-fired power stations and nuclear power plants to close.
In general, as part of the response to the “gas war” unleashed by Russia, the European Union still has to do two important things. First, create a single operator that will set the procurement parameters and closely monitor the uniform and timely filling of underground gas storage facilities in EU member states. And secondly, to create a single payment operator that would take all necessary actions in order to avoid blackmail from the suppliers of “blue fuel” regarding payment in one or another payment system and in one or another currency.
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