- -24% in Q1 2019
- -30% in Q2 2019
- -17% in Q3 2019
- -5% in Q4 2019
This is because when crypto crashes, miners will flood the market with used GPUs, giving bargain prices to gamers. MSRP prices for gaming GPUs doubled during the boom. What happens when GPU prices drop to half of MSRP?
In the last 3 months, ETH mining profitability has dropped by 50%. 70% in the last 6 months. This doesn't even account for electricity cost inflation.
ETH itself is down 30% in the last 7 days.
Nvidia does not break out its gaming and crypto sales. They lump both categories into their gaming sales category. Therefore, no one can reliably model the impact. But if I have to guess, it won't be as bad as 2018 if crypto does not go back up because Nvidia's overall revenue has diversified a bit since 2018.
The question is, is Wallstreet ready for negative Nvidia revenue growth? Do you think Wallstreet has already priced this in? Right now, Nvidia's PE is still at a premium over the market. What happens when its growth is negative for 4 quarters?
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