I don't believe the market is 100 percent efficient, but it could be 99 percent. Yes, I am making up a percent. There are so many people looking at stocks, and with the internet and computers, that I think any quantitative factor would be seen almost instantly. For your average person, I'm wondering if there is any advantage to looking at the numbers anymore. You might look at the basics in order to get a general idea of what you are buying into, but if you think you have a competitive edge, you are most likely wrong.
So if the numbers in the balance sheet and income statement are priced in, what is worth looking at? Qualitative reasons may be harder to price in. Even then, with A.I., millions or more of intelligent people looking at the market, it's still tough to have an advantage.
The more I study the market, the more I think stock picking is almost never worth it. I still pick individual stocks for the fun of it, but I realize how tough it is to beat ETFs.
Edit: To clarify, I'm not saying that market inefficiency can't be found in numbers. I'm saying that your average guy will have a tough time using numbers on reports to find those discrepancy. Yes, I'm sure the top 1 percent of the 1 percent can find price mismatches and use to their advantage. I think the market is only becoming more efficient over time due to the internet and computer technology, so it doesn't do much good for the Average person.
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