Information to consider:
- EU inflation is astronomically higher than is being reported and subsequent tightening will 100% lead to a big recession in Europe. That could spook domestic markets if that comes in conjunction with higher domestic inflation / higher domestic oil prices.
- US inflation report for July will very likely be lower than the June inflation report because oil stabilized and fell in late June currently below $100.00 per barrel. Probably between 8.0% and 9.0%, which could be a big short-term catalyst to the upside. Again, if oil prices continue to fall, then I'd expect a short-term rebound until other externalities come into play. If oil moves above $105, then markets will either flat-line or fall further.
- Wheat is still up ~ 33% on the year, but that's a big drop from its high of ~102% on the year. Coming wheat shortages may not be reflected in current futures prices. Rising wheat futures would be a leading indicator that inflation is not resolved. That would be negative on markets. The opposite would be true if they continued to fall.
- A recession in the US is 100% going to happen, but a one or two quarter recession won't tank the markets more than 10-15% (for stocks that actually make money).
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