I was listening to The Compound with Josh Brown earlier and he was asked if he believed tech would lead us out of this bear market. He answered no, explaining that it's never the companies that led the last cycle that lead the next. He then went on to say that the believed defence stocks could be the leadership group and that growth stocks would never be as hot as they were again.
I was quite surprised by his answer honestly, although I've heard a lot people make similar arguments against tech leadership recently.
What are your thoughts on this? As someone who started investing a decade ago I've never seen anything but tech dominate the market and while I understand trends can change I guess I just find it hard to wrap my head around how tech could become less relevant to either the market or the economy going forward.
So long as concerns around inflation and the energy crisis continue I could see the case for the energy outperforming, but it seems to me this trend isn't likely to persist and that eventually companies like GOOG, AMZN, AAPL and MSFT will fall back into favour. That said, if you look at how the top 10 companies in the S&P500 have changed over time it probably shouldn't be so surprising if we did see a longer-term shift out of tech. And with FB & NFLX already falling out of favour you could argue this shift away from big tech leadership has already begun.
What do you think? Do you believe the days of big-tech market leadership are behind us?
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