so if you see this post, the theory is that if you invested 1/4th in a 4x leveraged SPY ETF and hold onto remaining cash, buying more if with the excess cash if you go too low, could you beat SPY? I tested this in a quick spreadsheet calculation, please help poke holes.
Here's what I did:
- Starting with $100k, I compare a 100% lumpsum SPY investment with a 25% $XXXX investment.
- Theoretically, daily returns on 25% $XXXX investment and holding 75% cash should give you the same returns.
- The $25k is re-evaluated every 6 months, and if we are below $25k, cash is used to buy $XXXX to come back up to $25k. This is used till we run out of cash.
- Comparing daily returns from 1/1/2000 to date, there is a significantly higher return using $XXXX.
- $SPY includes DRIP, $XXXX does not. 1% annual expense decay on $XXXX and 3% cash APY is assumed.
Please tell me why I'm wrong, would love to have a discussion.
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