Dec 12 2023 CPI number is likely to be lower than expected or flat

Market estimate: YoY change 3.1%
Moneypig Trading CPI number estimate
40% of the chance: YoY change 2.9%~3.0% => $SPY rallies 1~2%
40% of the chance: YoY change 3.1% => $SPY +/- 0.5%
20% of the chance: YoY change 3.2~3.3% => $SPY -1% ~ 0%
The numbers are more likely to be under or equal to 3.1% and bullish, with the core CPI remaining strong because the housing numbers could be strong, offsetting the energy price drop.

More details are in our blog post: https://www.moneypigtrading.com/post/dec-12-2023-cpi-number-is-likely-to-be-lower-than-expected-or-flat