As of December 6th, 2022, I'm using GPT-3 as my first option for many of my searches instead of Google.
In the medium-term (2-5 years), Adobe and Google are two companies I think are very susceptible to AI disruption.
GPT-3 Chat is taking the internet by storm because it's able to provide significantly better results than Google search results for many queries. People will want to start using GPT-3 instead of Google.
See example: https://twitter.com/jdjkelly/status/1598021488795586561
Google is still very much a search engine company as the vast majority of its revenue and profits still come from search. Search profits are what is used to invest in other businesses such as Cloud and Waymo, etc which are making a loss and/or have lower margins.
As for Adobe, 68.2% of its revenue is from its creative tools such as Photoshop and Illustrator. But recent AI such as Stable Diffusion and DALLE-E is taking the art/image world by storm.
A lot of artists are freaking out because you can now simply describe an image you want in words and then it'll just make it for you in a few seconds. And if artists are scared, Adobe should be panicking. Not only are tools like Photoshop and Illustrator in trouble, but their recent $20b acquisition of Figma is too. I predict that by next year, we'll have AI generated web/app designs in seconds to replace Figma.
I'm always reminded of these two images:
How fast we think human progress will be because of what we know of the past: https://waitbutwhy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Edge.jpg
How fast human progress actually is: https://waitbutwhy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Edge1.png
Source: https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html
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