After this recent market run-up, the market is now more expensive again than the average 10-year market P/E. There is a lot of uncertainty still in front of us and I mentally can’t get my head around the idea that the market should keep going up when the Fed is still hiking and no one knows when they will actually stop. For the market to sell at a premium during a hiking cycle when most people believe in “Don’t fight the Fed” makes zero sense to me – especially when inflation is at a 40 year high and not close to be under control yet.
On the other hand, shorting the market is statistically hard to do because you have to get the timing right and most people don’t do this well so I am not a fan of shorting the market.
I am a fan of waiting for the market to dip again and then buying in. The hard part with this is this could take months to play out until we get a much clearer picture of reduced earnings going forward from companies. Earnings have been good and have not rolled over yet.
I am not going to force things and will be patient. I am 90% cash right now but this is a frustrating market for me because I rarely have this much cash out. If anyone has better ideas / plan, I would love to get that feedback.
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