Go out into the forest one beautiful day and observe all the dead and dying trees. Now observe the living, thriving trees. Which one is the tallest, the largest, the one the with the most massive trunk. Observe the saplings. which one is the most established? Which one has the best prospect for reaching and surpassing the current canopy?
The behavior of the forest affects the behavior of the individual trees. The forest affects the forest. This further complicates the certainty of any one prediction.
Trying to predict the prospects for a company is in many way analogous to the predictions based on observations of the individual trees.
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