Can the stock market go up without the Fed printing money?


A lot of people seem to be confused as to what's going on, and asking why the market is crashing. It seems that the Bears have 2 core arguments, and it has to do mainly with the macro environment, and how valuations over the last 40 years have been stretched thanks to easy fiscal and monetary policy.

Here's what I've been hearing from the Bears (these are not my ideas, but I do think they are very strong arguments):

  1. Over the last 40 years, we've had declining inflation, and declining interest rates to match. In addition, since 2009 we've had a near endless stream of QE. Now, because of Covid and the economy shut down, the money printing, the supply chain issues, war, food shortages leading to possible famine and global instability / political turmoil (Google Sri Lanka right now as an example, why is no one talking about that?). All this to say inflation is rearing it's ugly head again, and it's not nearly as transitory as everyone thinks because of the deglobalization that seems to be happening simultaneously. These issues will take months/years to resolve, and the Fed has no choice but to raise interest rates.
  2. The Fed is now unwinding all the QE they've done over the last 13 years (since 2009), by doing Quantitative Tightening (QT), which is effectively the reverse. Remember when people said “Don't fight the Fed” on the way up? Well now the Fed is reversing, so the logic should remain the same (ie: Don't fight the Fed and bash your head against the wall buying every little dip). Every single V-shape recovery we've seen since the GFC is thanks to easy monetary policies, QE1, QE2, QE3, etc, or lowering of interest rates. They can't do this anymore, both because of inflation, and also because it's an unpopular policy in this inflationary environment.

So essentially, until the Fed reverses course or inflation comes down meaningfully over the next 12 months, you should sell rips or at least buy Puts to hedge yourself.

My thoughts are, if there was no Fed intervention with the money printing and QE, and interest rates settled around 3.5-5%, where would the market be fairly valued? Is it a 15x P/E multiple, or a 10x multiple? Again, this assumes 0 Fed intervention via QE.

Would be interested in hearing everyone's thoughts on this.


Comments

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *