It's easy to look at statistics to see how violently the market has often rallied after a historically bad Q1. However, a year such as 2008 stands out as an example of a year where things simply went from bad to worse. The reason being that fundamentally nothing positive was occurring.
In order for the market to change direction, at the very least the market needs to catch a whiff of a potentially positive change in fundamentals. A Ukraine ceasefire, a Fed u-turn, something concerning oil production.. and these are not necessarily in the cards yet. Above all, I can't see a situation where electricity prices and gas prices don't blow up in Europe during the winter. There is not even a spark of hope regarding a ceasefire, either.
So, TL;DR – what potential positive catalysts are you guys seeing that could even potentially cause markets to rally in the next half?
Leave a Reply