Can anything be meaningfully deduced from BTC + Tesla still being “high” in terms of retail sentiment?


  1. Tesla is still +13% past 12 months with a 94x P/E and a market cap of $720b (this topic has been done to death; we don't need to get into it. They're an awesome company, their future growth story is amazing, their historical growth and returns are aw-inspiring, but these levels to me personally show that… retail has not pulled their money yet. I don't have data on who/what is propping Tesla up price wise, but I think it's fair to say it's very close to GME/AMC memestock levels valuation wise. However, institutional ownership is about 42% (if that report is accurate/means anything) but I'm sure a portion of that is because it's in a lot of S&P500 ETFs). Should they be worth more than every automaker combined, when we're about to enter a period of time of stagflation (GDP gonna go down because inflation eating into earnings/savings of regular Joe's who no longer can afford to finance a $40k-$60k Tesla)

  2. BTC/USD is still $28k-$30k and has been holding that level for about a full month now. Crypto probably has a place in the future, but the BTC technology and all of its layers are probably not going to remain dominant for the next 5 years, let alone 50. Crypto isn't really being used at large scale for things like… paying for groceries/gas/ordering food/buying stuff online. Does a small subset of people use it for random stuff? Yeah. Do they do it almost exclusively inside of heavily regulated exchanges? Pretty much. This alone tells me it isn't as good as a credit card for transactions and it isn't unregulated or decentralized or anonymous like original crypto claims. Why anybody is still FOMOing/holding on… I don't know. I believe they deserve to be “shaken out” (punished) for gambling, hoping an asset like Bitcoin makes them money despite not bringing any real value to the world (arguably, being a mild contributor to climate change due to all of the computational power used). Is crypto really a net positive on society right now? has it been past 12-36 months? If not, why is it worth $30k? It shouldn't be.

When we see BTC $20k-$25k or lower and TSLA down another 20% (13% to give up the gains for the past 12 months it has held onto, and 7-8% more to match what the S&P has done so far), I think I'll feel better about the stock market.

I could 100% be wrong and BTC could got to $100k and Tesla is going to do a 3:1 split and run up another 1000%. I just don't think those two things are founded on any sound fundamentals, that's all. And because of that, I don't think “max pain” has hit the market yet. There hasn't been a “flush” where the little guy gets wiped out (like picking Dotcom stocks back in 2000) and evil hedge fun Wall Street prevails/captures all of their money like a Vegas casino.


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