Buy Redfin, RDFN. $612m in cash. $944m in market cap. 51m monthly active users on app and website.


This cash-on-hand and market cap imply that all their users and tech are worth about $330m. This is insane.

I actually wrote about how stupid their management is sometimes here. But this low valuation is pretty insane.

They're the #2 or #3 real estate website/app in the US. You're telling me that alone is not worth $330m?

Yes, they kind of suck at monetizing their massive user base. But their website and app are extremely popular. Practically every buyer/seller uses it.

Not to mention their real estate agent software that they've built over the years that make their agents much more efficient?

If Amazon or some other big company wants to get into real estate, buying Redfin is now extremely attractive. Or Zillow and Redfin could merge to become a juggernaut. Both companies have HQ in Seattle.

Do I think that Redfin will get back to its all-time high of $97? No. Do I believe this is an easy double from $8 to $16 in the next few years? Yes. Do I think that there's a high chance that a big company will see this bargain and acquire Redfin? Absolutely.

If I see this bargain, there's absolutely no doubt in my mind that a company that wants to get into real estate, a private equity firm, or even Zillow see it. Extremely high chance for an acquisition if the price stays this low.


Comments

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *