Bullard thinks FED is not too much behind on tightening, due to the forward guidance

Fed Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed Bank President James Bullard argued that critics don’t take enough account of the tightening of financial conditions that the Fed engineered even before it began raising interest rates in March.

“Credible forward guidance means market interest rates have increased substantially in advance of tangible Fed action,” Bullard said in remarks prepared for a conference organized by the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. “This provides another definition of ‘behind the curve,’ and the Fed is not as far behind based on this definition.”

Waller, who was previously head of research at the St. Louis Fed, made a similar point, arguing that a shift in Fed rhetoric led investors in financial markets to start pricing in rate increases in September, leading to a rise in 2-year Treasury yields that he estimated were equivalent to two quarter-point rate increases by the central bank.

“When looked at this way, how far behind the curve could we have possibly been if, using forward guidance, one views rate hikes effectively beginning in September 2021?” he said.

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As of today, US 10 Year Treasuries rate is sitting at 3.14. From what I know, and please correct me if I'm wrong, QE is done to lower interest rates in longer-term securities, such as the 10-year and mortgage-backed securities.

But just like Bullard said, thanks to the forward guidance, even before QT even started market has almost already priced in all the upcoming rate hikes and tightening already, and we are currently sitting at a quite high (compared to the year before) interest rates and the effect is already clear on mortgage rates etc. I see lots of comments around here on how we are “just beginning” on tightening, and how “QT haven't even started yet” and when the rates are at 2-3% we are going to see much more decline etc. But aren't we at those rates already thanks to the forward guidance? Am I missing something, or are we already in this high-interest rate environment and we should start seeing its effects soon?