I wanted to create a list of all the current Bull vs Bear conditions in the current market, and figured I would post it here so people could add in suggestions:
Bull Case
- A good amount of damage has been done in markets this year, bringing things down to fair/under valued (based on TTM and Forward EPS estimates).
- Commodities look to have peaked, along with interest rate expectations, thereby signaling peak inflation (which is what started this whole thing).
- The job market is still strong, unemployment is low and there's still something like 1.9 open jobs for every person.
- The consumer is still strong and spending a lot of money. Their balance sheet is also healthy.
- No recession this year. A slowdown in growth appears certain, but not a recession. Given the recent decline, the market has more or less priced in the current situation.
Bear Case
- While there has been a good amount of damage done, markets are only “fairly valued” on forward EPS estimates that have not been revised down.
- Commodities are still higher than pre-covid levels by a significant amount. Peak inflation doesn't mean we instantly go back to 2%. Inflation is sticky, and higher than 2% will have the Fed continue to raise rates. Inflation may slow to 4 or 5% which is still way too high. If they raise and pause rates like the 1970's bear market, it will be a volatile mess.
- Jobs are a lagging indicator, and things can change quickly.
- A strong consumer contributes to inflation, forcing the Fed to continue rate hikes until inflation is below 3% at the very least.
- Until we know what earnings look like, we can't estimate how deep the growth decline will be. It's safer to wait until earnings + forward guidance at the very least.
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