Disclaimer: I own BABA at a $120/s price.
I recognize that relations between the US and China are increasingly fraught, the Chinese economy is looking at its weakest in decades and the complexity with the VIE structure are all weighing heavily against the stock. The jumbled spinoff plan isn't helping as well.
BUT, the company has a ~$15BN usd FCF without adding back stock based comp, has been buying back $10BN a year which with today drop would be about 5% of shares outstanding a year, and has been growing ok. Plus EV is only $160BN, so fcf yield (w/o SBC) is 10%, pretty solid all things considered.
I'm curious what people think would need to happen for multiple re-expansion to occur here, or is the expectation that the multiple will rest where it is and any gains will have to come through a mix of long-term share repurchases and the new dividend distribution they announced?
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