https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/08/as-inflation-bites-higher-income-consumers-are-cutting-back-too.html
With as much as 60% of U.S. consumers living paycheck to paycheck, it’s not a surprise to see that the spending cutbacks have started. Even with a strong job market and wage gains, as well as Covid stimulus savings, pricing spikes in core spending categories including food, gas and shelter are leading more Americans to mind their pocketbooks closely. A new survey from CNBC and Momentive finds rising concerns about inflation and the risk of recession, and Americans saying not only have they’ve started buying less but will be buying less across more categories if inflation persists. But these financial stress points are not limited to lower income consumers. The survey finds American with incomes of at least $100,000 saying they’ve cut back on spending, or may soon do so, in numbers that are not far off the decisions being made by lower income groups. The high-income consumer demographic is key to the economy. While it represents only one-third of consumers, it is responsible for up to three-quarters of the spending. As Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s notes, “If the high income consumers are out buying, we won’t see a big impact on raw consumer activity.”
Lower-income households are the most at risk, and they are the ones most likely to be making unwelcome tradeoffs to make their money stretch as far as it did just a few months ago, according to the survey results. They are also clearly experiencing more financially anxiety, according to the survey, with 57% of Americans with income under $50,000 saying they are under more stress than a year ago, versus 45% of those with incomes of $100,000 or more. The 68% of high-income consumers who said they are worried higher prices will force them to rethink financial decisions is significantly lower than the 82% of Americans with income of $50,000 or less who told the survey this, but it is still a majority. More than half of people with household incomes under $50,000 say they have already cut back on multiple expenses due to prices, and for those with income of at least $100,000, the cutback levels are already similar when it comes to dining out, taking vacations, and buying a car. “People making six-figure incomes are almost as worried about inflation as people making half as much—and they are just as likely to be taking steps to mitigate its effect on their lives,” said Laura Wronski, senior manager of research science at Momentive. “Inflation is a problem that compounds over time, and even high-income individuals won’t be insulated from the second- and third-order effects of price increases,” she said.
Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators and surveys at The Conference Board, said there is still a gap in its confidence data between lower income and higher income consumers and a lot of that is driven by the inflationary environment, and less impact the affluent will feel from factors including gas prices. She said the gap does always narrow in a pre-recession period — but its data is not indicating a recession as of now. What its confidence survey is forecasting is a slowdown in growth over the next few quarters driven by higher prices, and more Americans spending less on discretionary items as more of their money goes to covering the basics. That will be most acutely felt by the lower-income consumers, but there is broad-based concern about prices rising significantly in the months ahead — 6 out of every 10 consumers surveyed by The Conference Board think the Russia-Ukraine war will cause prices to rise significantly. “That is very broad-based and that, coupled with interest rates going up, may make people more hesitant to postpone big-ticket purchases likes housing and autos and washing machines,” Franco said. “We will see a bit of slowing in consumer spending over the next few quarters, but we don’t feel that will drive us into recession.”
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