ARK Invest sets new Tesla price target: $4600 in 2026

https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/arks-tesla-model/

ARK’s updated open-source Tesla model yields an expected value per share of $4,600 in 2026.

The bull and bear cases, tuned to the 75th and 25th percentile Monte Carlo outcomes respectively, are approximately $5,800 and $2,900 per share.

This research update is based on ARK’s new open-source Tesla model, which incorporates distributions for 38 independent inputs to simulate a range of potential outcomes for the company.

Tesla’s prospective robotaxi business line is a key driver, contributing 60% of expected value and more than half of expected EBITDA in 2026. Across our simulation set, we expect electric vehicles to constitute 57% of the company’s revenue in 2026, albeit at substantially lower margins than robotaxi revenue.

Key Updates in 2022:
This post updates ARK’s 2021 open-source Tesla model, which outlined our expected value of $3,000 per share in 2025. Material changes include:

• Autonomous ride-hail assumptions and inputs.

• Capital efficiency estimates.

• Forecast pushed forward by one year to 2026.