First, let's review our March monthly report expectations and the actual trend of U.S. stocks:
March was overall bullish. At the beginning of the month, it first referred to the vicinity of 2850-2875 and then retreated to the vicinity of 2800-2820. The S&P index rose 1.79% in March, but it was not a one-sided rise in January-February, but an N-shaped rise, with the highest point at 2860 and the lowest point at 2722
The decline in March was mainly due to concerns about the economic outlook, with German bunds trading at negative rates following a more dovish decision at the Fed's March meeting, and U.S. 10-year and 3-month interest rates inverting U.S. stocks in the middle of the month. A single-day drop of more than 2%. Many people think that interest rate inversion is a prelude to a recession. 10-year and 2-year interest rate inversions basically have long or short recessions 1-2 years after the inversion, and the same is true for the stock market. Such a situation naturally makes the market bear sound. State street's Investor Confidence Index plunges into a very extreme state
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