Anyone under 40 has never invested in a Bear Market & It shows – Long $GLD and $XLE


If you are 40 today, you would been 26 in 2008-2009. That is on average the age that adults consider buying their first house, new car, get married, and are in their first career job/profession. So anyone under 40 has never invested in a bear market.

This isn't saying experience and age makes you a better investor. It does however mean that many here are out of their element and have never invested in stocks during a bear market. Tech stocks were in a bear market from 1999-2012. That's 12 years. Assuming that your high growth stocks will recover to ATH's soon is a risky investment strategy.

What has worked well during a tightening monetary policy is commodities, crude oil, gold and dividend stocks. And while history never repeats exactly, I find it interesting that my best performing stocks are also the same type of stocks that outperformed from 2002-2008 and 2010-2012 until the Fed started QE into infinity. $HAL, $PSX, $CLF, $MOS, $GOLD, and $FCX are a few that have done very well for me.

I think this market is trading less on inflation being transitory or non-transitory and more on the Fed's response by tightening. The market doesn't care about inflation. All it cares about is the Fed's response to inflation and whether the Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy and increase Interest rates and by how much. And anyone under 40 has never invested in a market where the Fed has tightened. Growth stocks will not regain prior highs until the Fed switches from a tight to loose monetary policy. All other stock earnings, news, and inflation and economic data is all noise.

Good Luck


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